Well you heard about the Chinese New Year Effect. You heard about the Year End Holiday effect. School Holiday effect?
One of my friend suggested, "You better bring your kids go for holidays somewhere now. I don't think there'll be much happening in the market during these school holidays period." My first thought was; does school kids play in our stock market and when they go for holidays the market will slowdown. Kind of similar to when fund manager go for year end holidays. Well, that explains our market behavior. :-)I think you know what my friend meant by that.
Does school holidays really affect Bursa Malaysia stock market?
Here some data on from early 2006 to current.
School Holidays
|
CI day b4
|
CI last day
|
change
|
change
| |
| 2006 |
pt
|
%
| |||
| 11 Mac - 19 Mac | 921.96 | 922.62 | 0.660 | 0.072 | up |
| 27 May - 11 Jun | 930.75 | 915.40 | (15.350) | (1.649) | down |
| 19 Aug - 27 Aug | 942.00 | 950.52 | 8.520 | 0.904 | up |
| 18 Nov - 1 Jan | 1,040.79 | 1,096.24 | 55.450 | 5.328 | up |
2007 |
pt
|
%
| |||
| 10 Mac - 18 Mac | 1,188.83 | 1,182.20 | (6.630) | (0.558) | down |
| 26 May - 10 Jun | 1,339.08 | 1,352.39 | 13.310 | 0.994 | up |
| 18 Aug - 26 Aug | 1,191.55 | 1,273.52 | 81.970 | 6.879 | up |
| 17 Nov - 31 Jan | 1,386.64 | 1,445.03 | 58.390 | 4.211 | up |
2008 |
pt
|
%
| |||
| 8 Mac - 16 Mac | 1,296.33 | 1,194.84 | (101.490) | (7.829) | down |
| 24 May - 6 Jun | 1,274.78 | 1,248.57 | (26.210) | (2.056) | down |
| 16 Aug - 24 Aug | 1,095.05 | 1,085.60 | (9.450) | (0.863) | down |
| 15 Nov - 4 Jan | 880.59 | 894.36 | 13.770 | 1.564 | up |
2009 |
pt
|
%
| |||
| 14 Mac -22 Mac | 843.45 | 856.82 | 13.370 | 1.585 | up |
| 30 May - 14 Jun | 1,044.01 | ? |
Looking at the table above: overall, I don't think there were any obvious effects, it much depend of what trend the Composite Index were prior to the holidays. Somehow, I agree with my friend that during mid-year school holidays (May to Jun) the CI kind of slowed down and biased toward south. Since one more week remain, maybe we should consider taking our kids for holidays and put our mind off the quote and chart for a while. Come back fresh!
Below is KLSE Composite Index Daily chart with the school holidays period plotted in. (click to enlarge)
