Probably you have read my previous KLSE outlook blogpost, which call for bullish. I don't give any technical outlook after that because I was just waiting for it to develop. And now the bullishness is about to end. The bear is peeking through the window.
This blogpost is a call for the opposite.
Now it is a matter of time for the correction. Whole impulse (5 wave) has fulfilled, its just not (almost) ended yet. And a big bearish warning is coming after wave 5 ended.
The breaking of previous high (peak of wave 3) by the current up trend (Wave 5) making the whole (1,2,3,4,5) impulse wave almost completed, we need to prepare for corrective trend (a,b,c)
In other time, wave 5 can go further up ahead beyond wave 3 peak. Many potential targets can be accessed, it can even has an extension. However, I don't think this time.
Looking at bigger picture (bigger wave sequences or medium-term waves), I don't think current wave (5) will go far. I will say, KLCI will find it hard to go beyond 1,150 pt level. I will not wait for CI to close to that. If you been noticing this new power-5 FBM KLCI moved fast, at first I thought I can linger on holding position while riding wave 5 longer. Now, I need to watch my stocks position very closely. Technical indicators also showing divergence with the index now. See the KLCI daily chart below: (click the photo for larger view)
Looking at the bigger wave sequences (Elliot wave's sequence within sequence); the whole of wave 1 up to current wave 5 are actually corrective wave 4 of a bigger larger wave. This bigger wave sequence in bearish 5 wave sequence. See KLCI weekly chart below: (click the photo for larger view)
The only comforting thing, if this expected corrective wave start forming is that, there will be bullish sub-wave within. This corrective also can be in a,b,c,d,e sub-wave instead of a,b.c. After wave 5 ended, we only can ride wave b and d. Other waves are bearish. Note that this whole a,b,c,d,e corrective wave can take a long time to be completed. I only can say may it take few months to a year to completed. Say, maybe until second quarter next year to be completed.
BTW, my waves counting can soon easily be proved inaccurate ; if current wave 5 go way beyond 1,150 pt. If that happen, my longer term bearish outlook is wrong and we can rejoice.
This is one of those time I hope my market wave reading is wrong because having 800 pt (as the longer term downward target) is not really a comfortable thought. Especially we cannot go short for KLSE stocks. Elliot waves reading can have many probable scenarios. If you have contra technical outlook, your comments are most welcomed.
If my bearish outlook is AH1N1, I think WHO will give it level 5 (or even 6) alert warning.
