My KLSE and Sodomy Charge Warning.

Composite Index chart

Above : KLSE Composite Index chart (click to enlarge view)

That was a better week.

Considering several technical indicators (e.g. MACD) and improved volume, my best reading for KLSE Composite Index is that Elliot wave 5 have ended, now we are in a bullish correction wave (a, b, c wave with wave a already started). Medium term target : wave c to end 1250. Current support at 1100 pt. See KLSE chart above.

Remind you that my longer-term target 1050 & 930 pt still hold, but I believe that index will be generally moving upward in the next few weeks. That comes with a big warning (at the bottom of this post).

Short-term view: due to last week up trend, expect KLCI to ease a bit (already start on Friday). For the next few weeks (a,b,c wave), I believe it will be a good idea to take advantage of any short-term correction for swing trading or to accumulate in par with my bullish view ahead (target 1250). Careful of syndicate play - by the way the majority of counters synchronized, I don't think it's much due to sidelined retail players so suddenly decide to jump in.

Monitoring oil price together with palm oil could be useful in stalking oil& gas and plantation stocks.

BTW, I suppose most the previous issue such as oil price, palm oil price, credit squeeze, inflation etc are already kinds of accepted (discounted) by most. Although those concerns persist, for now they shouldn't give any sudden major shock to the financial system.

Here the warning. While I said take opportunity of any correction for buying, I like to warn you of .a political issue (among all others) currently hovering on Malaysia . Yes, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will contest in Permatang Pauh and he will win. Well, that not the issue, the issue here is the sodomy charge arrest : how the people will react to it. Do you recall when Anwar was charged in 1998 of also of a sodomy case? Remember that KLCI was below 300 pt in Sept 1998? Remember the street protest and demonstration? This Anwar Trial documentary in youtube should refresh your mind (catch the witnesses and main players speak, watch how FRU kick a protestor's head like it was a ball). If you think that bad, wait for this year, I will say the protest is going to be very, very massive. While in 1998, the supporters are mainly from Anwar's personal supporter within UMNO. A decade later, Anwar's supporters are more than personal; they come from Pakatan Rakyat, imagine all Keadilan supporters together with PAS and DAP supporters showing their protest in the street. It's about their Pakatan Rakyat been diminished by the enemy, it's about the future PM been taking away from them, it's about their dream of a better government been destroyed. They will not be jumping in joy when their leader been charged because of a suspicious sodomy, they will 'dance' angrily on the streets.

The fact that the army recently holding hands with police to handle protest demo and been training together for that, that make me uneasy. Well, you cannot blame people much for being so suspicious of this sodomy issue. If you are clueless about this sodomy thing, hit to Raja Petra Blog.

Anwar can be arrested for sodomy charge any time now. Anwar announcement to contest in Permatang Pauh and Syed Hamid's announcement "the investigation report is complete" happened on the same day! What the first thing you should do if you hear Anwar been arrested? Don't call your friends yet, call your stockbroker first. For me, it is to click SELL on my trading platform. I can buy back other time.

Anyway, there is also a slim probability that Anwar will not be brought in court anyway, in order not to repeat 1998's courtroom funny antics. This time the case must be strong, the world are watching and not least, rakyat Malaysia are watching.

Well, just like on the independence day, you can't get away the parade. Just like school holidays, you can't get away from kenduri kawin. Nowadays, you just can't get away from politics.